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Scenario Free eBooks (1)

ISBN: 0833008846, 9780833008848
Authors: James K. Hammitt, Frank Camm, P. S. Connell, W. E. Mooz, Kathleen A. Wolf, Donald J. Wuebbles, Anil Bamezai
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: stratospheric, ozone, deplete, chemicals, emission, scenarios, future
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone, and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90 percent probability interval......
ISBN: 0833017403, 9780833017406
Author: James K. Hammitt
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: parameters, stratospheric, ozone, depletion, input, uncertain, probability, based, scenarios, subjective
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

Risk analysis often depends on complex, computer-based models to describe links between policies (e.g., required emission-control equipment) and consequences (e.g., probabilities of adverse health effects). Appropriate specification of many model aspects is uncertain, including details of the model structure; transport, reaction rate, and other parameters; and application specific inputs such as p......
Authors: Committee To Review The U.s. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis, Assessment Product 3.2, National Research Council
Source: www.nap.edu
Keywords: lived, climate, short, scenarios, radiatively, active, aerosols, gases, emission, projections, program, science, change, synthesis, assessment, review, product, based
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

Download free ebook: Review Of The U.s. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis And Assessment Product 3.2, "climate Projections Based On Emission Scenarios For Long-lived And Short-lived Radiatively Active Gases And Aerosols"......
ISBN: 0833027212, 9780833027214
Authors: Jonathan D. Pollack, Chung Min Lee
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: implications, scenarios, unification, korean, preparing
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenari......
Author: Harvey A. Deweerd
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: construction, scenario, approach, contextual
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

A discussion of the utility and desirability of basing game and research scenarios on solid contextual foundations.Using future problems of NATO-Warsaw Pact relations as a point of orientation, the author defines a context as the overall background or environment in which political-military problems are considered, whereas a scenario describes events leading up to a specific crisis.Earlier methods......
ISBN: 0833028294, 9780833028297
Authors: Jimmie Mcever, Paul K. Davis, James H. Bigelow
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: large, scenario, space, capabilities, halt, interdiction, model, exploring, exhalt
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

Documents a relatively simple personal-computer model of interdiction in "the early halt problem" — the military problem of halting an invading army quickly. The authors' emphasis is on broad-ranging exploratory analysis at the aggregate level.......
Authors: James A. Dewar, William Schwabe, Thomas L. Mcnaugher
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: behavior, strategic, analysis, political, model, agent, rule, based, scenario
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

This Note describes a first-generation experimental computer model, Scenario Agent, as developed in RAND's Strategic Assessment Center in early 1981. Section II describes the Strategic Assessment Center and the role the Scenario Agent plays in it. Section III describes the conceptual approach taken in developing the Scenario Agent. Section IV discusses the Scenario Agent's inner workings in some d......
Author: Peter Deleon
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: overview, designs, scenario
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

An important element of most models, simulations, or games is the "scenario," which delineates the modeler's conception of whatever he is attempting to represent.This report focuses upon the designing of scenarios for the political/military free-form games, but the underlying assumptions regarding the function of scenarios will be shown to apply to a wide range of modeling exercises.This report co......
Authors: David G. Groves, Robert J. Lempert
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: relevant, scenarios, policy, finding, analytic, method, new
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

Groves and Lempert describe an application of their new analytic method to the challenge of water resource management in California. Scenarios play a prominent role in policy debates over climate change, but questions continue about how best to use them. The authors describe a new analytic method, based on robust decisionmaking, for suggesting narrative scenarios that emerge naturally from a decis......
Author: Carl H. Builder
Source: www.rand.org
Keywords: scenes, three, scenario, sky, diamonds
Formats:PDF
Copyrights: Copyrighted

A speculative scenario describes how nonnuclear weapons for strategic intercontinental warfare might be deliberately developed and introduced by the Soviets. Its purpose is to stimulate thinking about nonnuclear strategic weapons, not to predict them. It is not based on fact or evidence: An SS-17 launch monitored in the Aleutians was analyzed and determined to have an unusual trajectory and to giv......
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